Technical analysis of BTC-USD
Bitcoin has continued to consolidate around $9,500 so far this week. Click on the image to magnify. The aftermath of the halving has so far not produced another clear upward wave; there appears to be a resistance slightly below $10,000. Today’s technical analysis of BTC-USD looks at the possibilities for bitcoin over the next few days.
$10,000 is the most important area on this chart in the immediate future: a break above would probably lead to ongoing gains. The clearest low support on this chart is the area of $8,300 which resisted testing earlier this month.
Technical indicators on BTC-USD H4
Moving averages continue to print quite a strong buy signal. Each of the 50, 100 and 200 SMAs is successively above slower ones. Any more losses over the next few days could be challenged by the 100 SMA from which price bounced fairly strongly late last night GMT.
Contracting Bollinger Bands (50, 0, 2) suggest that volatility is decreasing. There is no indication of overbought either from these or the slow stochastic (15, 5, 5). The stochastic is actually closer to oversold at around 30. Volumes in MT5 remain fairly consistent with the average figures over the last few weeks.
Price action and Fibonacci
A number of fairly large wicks and tails over recent periods suggests that there is a degree of indecision here, with relatively lower demand both for either driving the price higher or starting a retracement downward. Gains in the second full week of May form three soldiers on the daily charts, so ongoing gains might be expected if the current area of resistance can be broken.
The Fibonacci fan here based on the daily charts seems to support the impression that $8,300 is an important support. The 38.2% area might continue to function as a support if there’s a break of the 100 SMA over the next few days after a rejection from around $10,000.
Bitcoin’s price and volume
There is evidence from 30-day volume of deliverable bitcoin that traders and investors are buying both dips and strong gains. Click on the image to magnify. This is a positive sign that would usually be interpreted as signalling ongoing gains.
While this chart doesn’t tell us whether the volume is buying or selling, comparison with the chart of spot CFDs on bitcoin-dollar allows us to conjecture that the spikes are mostly buying volume. This is because Volumes in MT5 displays higher buying volume around the higher volume on the chart immediately above. $1.22 billion on 10 May is among the highest daily volumes in 2020 so far.
Futures on bitcoin (BTCF)
Volume for next month’s BTCF at 227 is fairly high. Click on the image to magnify. There’s no clear signal for spot BTC-USD though from this chart, though, with the price reflecting the CFD very closely. July’s contract is slightly pricier, which would suggest some gains, but volume for July of only 28 means that this probably isn’t a very reliable signal.
Technical analysis of BTC-USD: summary
Bitcoin’s consolidation seems likely to continue over the next few days at least. The breakout would be more favourable if price can hold around the top of the four-hour chart for a bit longer. Equally a retracement downward might be seen as likely with a clear break of the 100 SMA and possibly the 38.2% Fibonacci zone.
Thank you for reading Exness Education’s technical analysis of BTC-USD! We’ll continue to evaluate movements of the most popular pairs with bitcoin in the aftermath of the halving, so stay tuned. You can also request a symbol to be covered here by commenting on social media.