weekly forex data
weekly forex data

Weekly forex data: inflation around the world

Various European indices reached new highs this morning GMT as positivity on economic recovery remains high and the American government is expected to approve plans for new fiscal stimulus within the next few days. This preview of weekly forex data looks at EURGBP, CADJPY and UKOIL.

The only significant surprise from central banks last week was the Banco de Mexico’s loosening of policy, cutting its benchmark rate a quarter of a percent to 4%. No notable activity in monetary policy is expected this week, but most traders will be eyeing news of Congress’ passing the Democrats’ $1.9 trillion package of fiscal stimulus.

Some of the most important regular releases of data this week are annual inflation from the UK, Canada and Japan. Other key figures include tomorrow’s German sentiment and balance of trade from Japan. The only data from the USA this week of high importance are retail sales and the FOMC’s minutes, both on Wednesday.

Euro-pound, daily

 

weekly forex data

The pound has been among the best performing major currencies over the last few weeks, reaching a fresh nine-month high against the euro today and a new high of around three years against the greenback. Freight traffic across the Channel is now more than 90% of February 2020’s volume, and generally decent British GDP data last Friday considering the circumstances has boosted sentiment on sterling. Preliminary GDP growth for Q4 in the UK was 1% and, combined with an upwardly revised 16.1% for Q3, shows that a double-deep recession has been avoided.

The downtrend for EURGBP continues to be very strong from a technical perspective, with clearer spaces forming between the 50, 100 and 200 SMAs and price extending below the 38.2% area of the weekly Fibonacci fan. Oversold is an important concern for new sellers here, though, with the slow stochastic (15, 5, 5) having displayed a clear signal of selling saturation for some weeks and currently holding below 10.

This could be quite an active week for euro-pound given the importance of some of the data expected, notably tomorrow’s ZEW sentiment and Wednesday’s British inflation. An upward consolidation from the current area might provide a less risky entry to sell.

Key data this week

Bold indicates the most important releases for this symbol.

Tuesday 16 February

  • 6.30 GMT: French unemployment rate (Q4) – consensus 9%, previous 9%
  • 9.00 GMT: Italian balance of trade (December) – consensus €5.4 billion, previous €6.77 billion
  • 10.00 GMT: eurozone-wide ZEW economic sentiment index (February) – consensus 57, previous 58.3
  • 10.00 GMT: German ZEW economic sentiment index (February) – consensus 59.6, previous 61.8        

Wednesday 17 February

  • 7.00 GMT: British annual core inflation (January) – consensus 1.3%, previous 1.4%
  • 7.00 GMT: British annual inflation (January) – consensus 0.5%, previous 0.6%
  • 7.00 GMT: British monthly inflation (January) – consensus negative 0.4%, previous 0.3%

Friday 19 February

  • 0.01 GMT: British Gfk consumer confidence (February) – consensus -27, previous -28
  • 7.00 GMT: German PPI (January) – consensus 0.8%, previous 0.8%
  • 7.00 GMT: British annual retail sales (January) – consensus negative 1.3%, previous 2.9%
  • 7.00 GMT: British monthly retail sales (January) – consensus negative 2.5%, previous 0.3%
  • 7.45 GMT: French annual inflation (final, January) – consensus 0.6%, previous nil
  • 9.00 GMT: Italian annual inflation (final, January) – consensus 0.2%, previous negative 0.2%
  • 9.00 GMT: Spanish balance of trade (February) – consensus negative €1.3 billion, previous negative €590 million

Canadian dollar-yen, daily

 

The loonie has continued to make strong gains so far in 2021 as oil has continued upward, the correlation between the two having remained strong. Recovery in trade and in China’s economy has also boosted the Canadian dollar given that Canada’s main trade partners are the USA and China and CAD is typically sensitive to disruptions.

Japanese data early this morning, preliminary Q4 GDP and industrial production, beat the consensus but remained weak. The general environment of markets at the moment remains very much ‘risk on’, a situation which usually leads to commodity currencies making gains against havens such as the yen.

The Canadian dollar’s uptrend from the point of view of TA is clear but as with euro-pound above there’s clear evidence of saturation. For CADJPY both Bollinger Bands (50, 0, 2) and the slow stochastic (15, 5, 5) show overbought, with the latter at about 92 close to the maximum reading. Surprises or changes in sentiment from this week’s key releases might provide a more advantageous point of entry for some traders.

Key data this week

Bold indicates the most important releases for this symbol.

Tuesday 16 February

  • 23.50 GMT: Japanese balance of trade (January) – consensus negative ¥600 billion, previous ¥751 billion
  • 23.50 GMT: Japanese annual machinery orders (December) – consensus negative 3%, previous negative 11.3%
  • 23.50 GMT: Japanese annual exports (January) – consensus 6.6%, previous 2%

Wednesday 17 February

  • 13.30 GMT: Canadian annual core inflation (January) – consensus 1.4%, previous 1.5%
  • 13.30 GMT: Canadian annual inflation (January) – consensus 0.8%, previous 0.7%
  • 13.30 GMT: Canadian monthly inflation (January) – consensus 0.4%, previous negative 0.2%

Thursday 18 February

  • 13.30 GMT: Canadian ADP employment change (January) – consensus negative 14,100, previous negative 28,800
  • 23.30 GMT: Japanese annual core inflation (January) – consensus negative 0.7%, previous negative 1%
  • 23.30 GMT: Japanese annual inflation (January) – consensus negative 1%, previous negative 1.2%

Friday 19 February

  • 13.30 GMT: Canadian retail sales (December) – consensus negative 2.6%, previous 1.3%

Brent, daily

 

weekly forex data

Brent opened with a gap up today and reached fresh annual highs above $63 this morning GMT. Oil has been supported so far this week by disruptions to supply in the southern US and new drone strikes on Saudi Arabia by the Houthis, while more general factors include the ongoing economic recovery and the prospect of American fiscal stimulus.

Here as elsewhere there is very obvious buying saturation with an extremely overbought slow stochastic at about 94 and today’s gap up taking price further above the upper deviation of Bands. Given that there’s no clear resistance in immediate sight, though, the catalyst for any retracement is more likely to come from sentiment or data. Stimulus is a key factor, but traders will also be watching the usual stock data and rig count this week.

Key data this week

Bold indicates the most important release for this symbol.

Wednesday 17 February

  • 21.30 GMT: API crude oil stock change (12 February) – previous negative 3.5 million

Thursday 18 February

  • 16.00 GMT: EIA crude oil stock change (12 February) – consensus negative 5.17 million, previous negative 6.64 million

Friday 19 February

  • 18.00 GMT: Baker Hughes’ oil rig count (19 February) – previous 306

Thank you for reading Exness Education’s preview of weekly forex data! Please join us again later in the week for analysis of AUDUSD and TSLA.

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